Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG
19.05.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG
Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN: AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 57
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Simon Keller
Cleared for take-off; Up to BUY
We upgrade FLU to BUY. The shares have delivered nearly no return since our
June 2023 Hold initiation, yet the underlying case has notably improved: the
operational base is stronger, the equity story has de-risked, and the group
remains exposed to structurally growing air-travel demand.
Three overhangs have lifted. First, the LCC capacity cuts by Ryanair and
Wizz are now reflected in the run-rate rather than a major remaining
forecast risk, creating a cleaner base for FY26. Second, the cancellation of
the 3rd runway removes a potential EUR 2bn CapEx risk. The remaining
investment pipeline is clearly defined, with T3 South scheduled for 2027 and
Pier North for 2031, both fundable through operating cash flow, existing
cash and moderate additional debt if needed. Third, from January 2026, the
airport-charge regime returned to the statutory formula. While the 2026
tariff reset lowers the passenger-tariff base, this headwind is now
implemented. From 2027, tariffs should again reflect inflation, coupled with
an incentive structure to support traffic growth at Vienna.
Catalysts are visible. Sequential summer 2026 traffic normalisation as the
Easter distortion drops out and LCC capacity plateaus, efficiency-programme
delivery partly offsetting the airport-charge cut, and T3 South opening in
Q2 2027. The latter should increase Vienna's retail and gastronomy area by
c. 50%, supporting a step-up in commercial revenue per passenger (currently
c. EUR 3.50/PAX p.a.).
European air-travel demand is set to grow at a 4% CAGR into 2030 (Roland
Berger). Vienna is exposed to a diversified demand base, spanning tourism,
corporates, international organisations and transfer traffic. Importantly,
FWAG owns the airport infrastructure outright, with no concession expiry,
giving investors a structurally cleaner long-duration cash-flow profile.
FWAG combines above-peer returns with the lowest leverage in the peer set.
In 2025, the group generated a 13.2% ROE, 2.7pp above the peer median.
Unlike peers that rely more heavily on debt to lift returns, FWAG's ROE is
driven operationally: above-median profit margins (18.6% vs 16.1%) and
best-in-class asset turnover (45.6% vs 32.6%). This operational edge is also
visible beyond the financials: Vienna ranked #1 in punctuality among
European hubs with >30m passengers (source: ACI). This higher-quality return
profile is one of the structural reasons to own Flughafen Wien.
Q1 26 results are due on May 21 (see p.2). We expect modest top-line growth
and slightly better earnings, with EBIT seen up 3.3% yoy, as the 2026
airport-charge cut is partly offset by lower incentive plans. April traffic
was soft, as expected (also see p.2), reflecting the summer-schedule
transition (reduced LCC capacity) and an unfavourable Easter calendar (March
2026 vs April 2025). Both remain fully consistent with the full-year
guidance for PAX.
Lastly, on the Middle East: direct route exposure is modest and already in
the numbers; the second-order risk, i.e. higher energy prices weighing on
travel demand, is cyclical in nature and not specific to FWAG. Historically,
air-travel demand has proven resilient to geopolitical and energy shocks,
with modest and short-lived declines outside of COVID-19 (the 1979 oil
crisis, for example, troughed at just -1% by 1981 vs 1979; Roland Berger).
We work off a medium-term de-escalation base case; on that view, today's
depressed PAX reads as an entry point, in a structurally growing market.
BUY (old: HOLD), unchanged PT EUR 57, based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=62368e28c5d037bf063de61e09aaf400
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2329508 19.05.2026 CET/CEST
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